Some Thoughts On The 2021 Elections

On the 14th April 1931, King Alfonso XIII fled Spain. A republic, the second in Spain’s history, was proclaimed. Five years later, conservative reaction to that republic would culminate in the outbreak of civil war — a civil war which looks in hindsight like the prelude to world war.

What caused Alfonso to abandon his throne? A referendum? A general election? A revolution? On the 12th April, Spanish citizens cast votes in municipal elections, the first for nine years. Republican parties swept to victory, securing 43% of seats up for election. Monarchist forces won only 24%.

Local elections are, on paper, about local governance. But they can at times attain national significance. In 2021, British electors go to the polls to vote in a range of local and devolved elections. These elections have the potential to attain a significance greater than the merits and demerits of local politicians.

Scotland

Let’s take three examples, starting with the Scottish parliamentary election. Next year’s election is of profound consequence for the future of the Union. The SNP currently govern as a minority in Scotland. It is quite possible that they will secure a majority in next year’s elections. This prospect needs unpacking.

Undoubtedly, popular support for the SNP is variegated. There are many reasons one might vote for the SNP, but three seem most important: because one supports independence; because one admires Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership; because they seem the…